Case studies from some of the world’s largest supermarket brands illustrate both the scale of potential exposure under weather scenarios and the returns resilience investments can generate.
New York, NY — September 9, 2025 – America’s largest supermarkets and food producers face critical investment decisions as weather volatility increases risks to operations, supply chains, and consumers.
Released to coincide with New York Climate Week, new analysis from risk intelligence firm Climate X suggests that preparing for shocks can cost far less than dealing with the disruption.
Climate X’s modeling shows that a top US retailer, which has thousands of outlets across North America, could materially reduce potential exposure across its portfolio worldwide with around $2.09 billion of targeted adaptation investment. By comparison, without such measures, modeled exposure could reach $169.3 billion in physical damage and operational disruption, alongside $93.45 – $373.8 billion in cumulative additional insurance premiums by 2035 under high-volatility scenarios. To put this in context, real-world disasters such as Hurricane Harvey ($125 billion) and Hurricane Sandy ($70 billion) have already caused multi-billion-dollar losses.
At one of the US’ leading food producer’s processing plants, Climate X modeling suggests that a $1.2 million investment in flood protection could prevent approximately $2.4 million in projected losses over the coming decade, effectively doubling the value of the upfront spend. This is a modeled scenario designed to show the potential returns of adaptation measures.
Both the global retailer and the food producer in question have already acknowledged weather-related risks in their public reporting and are actively investing in sustainability and risk-management programs. Climate X’s analysis is intended to illustrate the opportunity to build on this progress, rather than suggest any shortfall, and to highlight the potential returns on resilience investment.
Weather shocks are already disrupting other industries. In 2024, Porsche issued a profit warning after flooding shut down a supplier in Switzerland, leading to production delays and an estimated $2 billion financial impact. Climate X’s modeling suggests exposures at companies could be more than ten times higher over the next five years under similar scenarios if resilience measures are not scaled.
“For the supermarkets we modeled, preparing for weather shocks costs less than dealing with the disruption,” said Kamil Kluza, COO and cofounder of Climate X. “Resilience investments help keep food available and affordable when storms or floods hit.”
Conversational Episode
Risk is investment risk. Having the right intelligence to identify high-risk assets and prioritize cost-effective resilience measures means we can preserve long-term value for our clients while keeping portfolios competitive."
Helen Gurfel, Head of Global Sustainability & Innovation at CBRE Investment Management
The data comes from Climate X’s newly launched Adaptation & Resilience Marketplace - the world’s first and only platform dedicated to Adaptation Finance.
Building on the success of Climate X’s Adapt product, already used by many of the world’s largest real estate firms, the Marketplace enables banks, insurers and asset owners to assess corporate risk at the asset level and channel capital into resilience projects that deliver both strong financial returns and measurable reductions in losses, from revenue protection to lower insurance premiums.
Through an online platform for climate-stressed real assets worldwide, the Marketplace brings together banks, insurers, investors, and risk engineers to transact with greater speed, scale and accuracy and give fuel to the nascent climate adaptation market.
Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC recently estimated that revenues from adaptation solutions could reach $4 trillion annually by 2050, four times their level today. Climate X’s modeling illustrates this dynamic at the corporate level, where inaction can cost multiples more than preparation.
The findings are published in Climate X’s new Adaptation & Resilience Whitepaper available here. Produced by Climate X in collaboration with leading financial institutions, the whitepaper outlines how adaptation finance is emerging as one of the most urgent and commercially viable investment frontiers - and sets out why the financial sector must act now to unlock its multi-trillion-dollar potential.
Some of the world’s leading financial institutions have responded to the analysis, highlighting that weather-related risk is already shaping investment and insurance decisions for companies and households alike. Hazem Krichene, Senior Climate Economist at Allianz Research, said: “Adaptation isn’t optional, it is the difference between sustained insurability and rising losses. Every step a business takes to reduce its vulnerability directly affects its value.”
Helen Gurfel, Head of Global Sustainability & Innovation at CBRE Investment Management, added: “Risk is investment risk. Having the right intelligence to identify high-risk assets and prioritize cost-effective resilience measures means we can preserve long-term value for our clients while keeping portfolios competitive.”
-ENDS-
For more information contact climatex@transatlanticent.com
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About Climate X
Climate X is the leading risk intelligence platform empowering financial institutions and real estate owners to turn climate risk into resilient returns.
From London to New York, our team of climate scientists and financial risk experts delivers decision-ready intelligence with absolute clarity — quantifying exposure, translating it into financial impact, and mapping the path to ROI for resilience.
With Climate X, you can:
- Pinpoint at-risk assets globally in seconds, anywhere in the world
- Assess vulnerability to 11+ climate hazards at both asset and portfolio level
- Quantify financial impact with precision — from Estimated Annual Loss to business disruption
- Prioritize and budget for adaptation with clear ROI and CapEx clarity
Trusted by institutions managing over $47 trillion in assets — including a top-3 North American bank, a global top-3 private equity firm, and leading global consultancies like Deloitte and Bain — Climate X is setting the global benchmark for how organizations de-risk the future and unlock climate-aligned growth.
To learn more, visit https://www.climate-x.com.
Notes
- All figures are scenario-based projections modeled by Climate X and do not represent reported company accounts.
- Methodology: Climate X’s modeling uses proprietary asset-level data combined with climate hazard projections under SSP5 (high-emissions scenario) to identify corporate assets, estimate potential financial losses and calculate the potential avoided losses from adaptation measures.
Legal Disclaimer
This document is provided by Climate X Ltd for information and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment, accounting, legal, regulatory, or tax advice, and should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent professional advice or analysis. Readers should exercise their own judgment and, where appropriate, seek guidance from qualified advisers.
The contents of this document have been prepared on the following basis:
- The document and its contents are unaudited and provided “as is.”
- All materials, positions, assumptions, and statements may be subject to change without notice.
- Models, methodologies, scenarios, and data used are subject to limitations, including:
- reliance on some third-party data and external sources that may not have been independently verified;
- data gaps and limited availability of consistent or standardized information;
- uncertainties related to projections of future climate, policy, technology, and market conditions.
- Climate X Ltd’s models and outputs may be adjusted or updated over time, and such changes are outside the control of Climate X Ltd, where third-party inputs are used.
- Any opinions, forward-looking statements, or estimates are indicative, illustrative, and subject to uncertainty. Actual outcomes may differ materially.