Research
Growing Wildfire Risk in Europe: Today to 2050
How wildfire risk is spreading across Europe, and what the damage could cost.
Five consecutive record-breaking fire seasons have pushed wildfire exposure into countries and building stock once considered low risk.
We map wildfire risk across 270 million buildings in 31 countries across europe, quantifying how exposure shifts between now and 2050, and what that means for lenders, insurers, and asset managers.
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Scale of Exposure
Nearly 5 million buildings are already exposed
Wildfire risk has moved beyond the Mediterranean. Close to 4.9 million European buildings face a 1-in-100 year or worse wildfire risk by 2050, representing €360bn of building replacement value.
Geographic Shift
Wildfire risk is spreading into northern Europe
The countries carrying the most exposure today aren't where the fastest growth is happening. Areas once considered low risk are starting to register measurable exposure, and that shift changes where underwriting and portfolio attention need to go.
Strategic Takeaway
Plan for 2050, not just today
A building below the risk threshold today may not stay there over a 25-year mortgage. Asset-level modelling lets lenders, insurers, and asset managers price that shift before it becomes unavoidable.
"Wildfire risk is growing across Europe, especially in exposed communities within the urban-rural interface. This is where people live and work alongside fire-prone landscapes. That exposed area has already grown by 35% since 2000, and we expect the number of properties at risk to keep rising."
Dr James Brennan, Director of Science at Climate X
Turn Wildfire Risk Into Resilience
Connect with our team to translate high-resolution wildfire risk into concrete next steps. Identify exposure hotspots, quantify financial impact over time, and outline practical measures that improve insurability, pricing, and portfolio resilience.
