Climate X Research Shows Nearly 5 Million Properties Across Europe Face High Wildfire Risk By 2050

Portugal accounts for close to 60% of Europe’s total exposure, more than any other country. However, its risk levels are set to grow by only 1% by 2050 as so much of the nation is already exposed.

Risk is growing fastest across Finland, Poland and the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia), as regions with historically negligible wildfire exposure are now beginning to register material risk. The number of assets exposed in Finland to a 1% wildfire risk will increase by 50% by 2050.

This widening risk area is already apparent. In 2025, Germany, Spain, Cyprus and Slovakia each recorded their worst wildfire year on record, and the UK had its worst season since monitoring began in 2012, including the largest wildfires ever recorded in Scotland. In Athens, exposure is projected to rise from €0.7bn to €1.0bn by 2050, a 38% increase driven by rising fire probability on existing buildings, not new construction.

Lenders and insurers need to treat wildfire exposure the same way they already treat flood or subsidence risk. It should be priced, monitored, and revisited over the life of the asset, not signed off once at the start. As reporting and compliance requirements tighten in Europe, climate risk scrutiny becomes a regulatory expectation rather than just good practice.”

Kamil Kluza, COO and Co-founder, Climate X.

With European lenders and insurers facing growing pressure to disclose forward-looking climate risk under CSRD (the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, which requires large financial institutions to disclose forward-looking climate risk), institutions that begin treating wildfire as a live, shifting input now will be better placed than those waiting for the next fire season to force the issue.

These findings draw on Climate X's Global Wildfire model, which assigns a burn probability to each of 270 million individual buildings across 31 European countries resolved to 30-metre resolution. Unlike index-based or purely historical approaches, the model produces burn probabilities rather than a relative risk score. The model simulates 50,000 fire footprints per location, resampled across 100,000 synthetic years to capture both typical fire activity and rare, extreme events. Future risk is projected under four IPCC climate scenarios using climate model projections of temperature and humidity changes. Asset-level financial exposure is calculated by applying each building's replacement cost and a damage ratio, determined by its roof, wall and eave construction.. The model has been validated against high quality US damage data and against historical fire events globally.

Climate X is one of the world’s leading climate adaptation and resilience firms, empowering financial institutions and real estate owners to turn climate risk into resilient returns. From London to New York, their team of climate scientists and financial risk experts delivers decision-ready intelligence with absolute clarity, quantifying exposure, translating it into financial impact, and mapping the path to ROI for resilience.

Trusted by institutions managing over $13.5 trillion in assets, including a top-3 North American bank, a global top-3 private equity firm, a top-3 Global P&C insurer and leading global consultancies like Deloitte and Bain & Company, Climate X is setting the global benchmark for how organizations de-risk the future and unlock climate-aligned growth. To learn more, visit https://www.climate-x.com.